Scouting Report
Jason Arnott holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Arnott on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Arnott shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Arnott 50.3% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Arnott 52.5%
Defensive zone
Stepan 71.8%
Neutral zone
Stepan 58.8%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 61.2%
61.2%
38.8%
Stepan
Arnott
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Stepan
Arnott
Last 6: Stepan 2-4 Arnott
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Arnott
0
1
Stepan
Arnott
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Arnott
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Arnott
1
2
Stepan
Arnott
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Arnott
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
49.7% (1,444)
-3.2%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
53.8% (182)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
40.0% (15)
+4.2%
On power play, Arnott has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Arnott shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Arnott is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (488).
Home / Away
Stepan
Arnott
Home
47.6% (6,608)
52.1% (891)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
48.2% (772)
By Period
Stepan
Arnott
P1
47.5%
46.1%
P2
45.6%
53.6%
P3
46.8%
50.1%
OT
40.7%
71.4%
Final 5 min
47.5%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2011 | 2 | 04:45 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 3, 2011 | 1 | 15:35 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 29, 2010 | 1 | 07:18 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 5, 2010 | 1 | 14:57 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Oct 24, 2010 | 3 | 09:01 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Oct 24, 2010 | 1 | 14:02 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |