Scouting Report
Jason Arnott holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Arnott on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 38.8% vs right-shot opponents — Arnott shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 39.9% vs Arnott 50.2% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 71.9%
Defensive zone
Stepan 73.7%
Neutral zone
Stepan 73.3%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 73.1%
73.1%
26.9%
Stepan
Arnott
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Stepan
Arnott
Last 5: Stepan 1-4 Arnott
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Arnott
0
1
Stepan
Arnott
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Arnott
0
1
Stepan
Arnott
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Arnott
1
2
Stepan
Arnott
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Arnott
Edge
Even Strength
38.6% (630)
49.0% (777)
-10.4%
Power Play
45.3% (64)
58.1% (93)
-12.8%
Penalty Kill
22.7% (22)
30.0% (10)
-7.3%
On power play, Arnott has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Arnott shoots right. Stepan is 38.8% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Stepan shoots right. Arnott is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (267).
Home / Away
Stepan
Arnott
Home
39.0% (364)
51.1% (460)
Away
38.0% (355)
49.3% (434)
By Period
Stepan
Arnott
P1
39.4%
45.3%
P2
40.6%
54.2%
P3
36.4%
49.8%
OT
12.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
40.4%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
38.5%
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2011 | 1 | 15:35 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 29, 2010 | 1 | 07:18 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 5, 2010 | 1 | 14:57 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Oct 24, 2010 | 3 | 09:01 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Oct 24, 2010 | 1 | 14:02 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |