Scouting Report
Joe Vitale holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Vitale on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Vitale shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Vitale 54.6% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Vitale leads 15-11 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 77.4%
Defensive zone
Stepan 52.4%
Neutral zone
Stepan 67.9%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 67.6%
67.6%
32.4%
Stepan
Vitale
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
15
(26 meetings)
11
15
Stepan
Vitale
Last 10: Stepan 5-5 Vitale
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
6
3
Stepan
Vitale
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Vitale
0
6
Stepan
Vitale
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Vitale
5
6
Stepan
Vitale
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Vitale
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
55.9% (1,771)
-9.4%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
76.0% (25)
-27.2%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
47.1% (297)
-2.9%
On power play, Vitale has a +27.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Vitale shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Vitale is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (668).
Home / Away
Stepan
Vitale
Home
47.6% (6,608)
56.1% (1,050)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
53.5% (1,048)
By Period
Stepan
Vitale
P1
47.5%
52.9%
P2
45.6%
53.8%
P3
46.8%
57.5%
OT
40.7%
72.7%
Final 5 min
47.5%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Vitale
44.0%▼
48.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2015 | 3 | 16:03 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 2 | 18:54 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 2 | 05:33 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 2 | 02:44 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 1 | 02:17 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 14, 2015 | 1 | 13:03 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 3, 2014 | 3 | 00:43 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Dec 18, 2013 | 3 | 15:10 | Neutral | Joe Vitale |
| Dec 18, 2013 | 2 | 13:50 | Offensive | Joe Vitale |
| Dec 18, 2013 | 2 | 07:32 | Offensive | Joe Vitale |
| Nov 6, 2013 | 3 | 07:34 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Nov 6, 2013 | 1 | 14:13 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Nov 6, 2013 | 1 | 14:09 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 3, 2013 | 3 | 13:42 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Jan 31, 2013 | 2 | 03:43 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 20, 2013 | 3 | 19:21 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 20, 2013 | 3 | 06:04 | Neutral | Joe Vitale |
| Apr 5, 2012 | 1 | 09:41 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Mar 15, 2012 | 3 | 18:34 | Neutral | Joe Vitale |
| Mar 15, 2012 | 2 | 14:32 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |