Scouting Report
Joe Vitale holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Stepan wins 43.8% vs right-shot opponents — Vitale shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 44.5% vs Vitale 48.5% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 53.3%
Defensive zone
Vitale 86.3%
Neutral zone
Vitale 74.0%
Result
Joe Vitale favored at 57.8%
42.2%
57.8%
Stepan
Vitale
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Stepan
Vitale
Last 6: Stepan 5-1 Vitale
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
4
0
Stepan
Vitale
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Vitale
0
1
Stepan
Vitale
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Vitale
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Vitale
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (942)
50.8% (539)
-7.3%
Power Play
48.1% (162)
40.0% (5)
+8.1%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (128)
41.3% (189)
+1.7%
On power play, Stepan has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Vitale shoots right. Stepan is 43.8% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Stepan shoots right. Vitale is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (238).
Home / Away
Stepan
Vitale
Home
45.6% (629)
46.9% (371)
Away
42.5% (603)
49.7% (362)
By Period
Stepan
Vitale
P1
44.7%
52.9%
P2
43.7%
44.2%
P3
43.9%
47.9%
OT
40.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
44.1%
Vitale
44.0%▼
48.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2015 | 3 | 16:03 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 2 | 18:54 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 2 | 05:33 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 2 | 02:44 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 1 | 02:17 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 14, 2015 | 1 | 13:03 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |