Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.2% vs Komarov 46.7% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 75.7%
Defensive zone
Komarov 59.9%
Neutral zone
Stepan 53.7%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 63.8%
63.8%
36.2%
Stepan
Komarov
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Stepan
Komarov
Last 6: Stepan 4-2 Komarov
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
4
0
Stepan
Komarov
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Komarov
0
2
Stepan
Komarov
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Komarov
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (1,155)
42.9% (56)
+5.3%
Power Play
48.2% (193)
42.9% (7)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (174)
46.0% (139)
-8.1%
On penalty kill, Komarov has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Komarov shoots left. Stepan is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,064).
Stepan shoots right. Komarov is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (79).
Home / Away
Stepan
Komarov
Home
46.4% (774)
49.5% (103)
Away
47.7% (748)
40.4% (99)
By Period
Stepan
Komarov
P1
46.7%
49.1%
P2
46.3%
39.0%
P3
48.1%
49.3%
OT
47.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
46.7%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.0%
Komarov
46.0%▲
42.0%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2017 | 3 | 08:48 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 23, 2017 | 2 | 11:34 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 2 | 14:12 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 2 | 11:21 | Defensive | Leo Komarov |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 1 | 04:22 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 13, 2017 | 1 | 14:44 | Defensive | Leo Komarov |