Scouting Report
Marty Reasoner holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Reasoner on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Stepan wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Reasoner shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 45.1% vs Reasoner 52.5% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 86.3%
Defensive zone
Stepan 54.8%
Neutral zone
Stepan 66.0%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 65.7%
65.7%
34.3%
Stepan
Reasoner
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Stepan
Reasoner
Last 7: Stepan 2-5 Reasoner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Reasoner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reasoner
0
2
Stepan
Reasoner
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Reasoner
1
3
Stepan
Reasoner
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Reasoner
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (680)
55.2% (475)
-10.3%
Power Play
50.8% (118)
45.5% (11)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
29.8% (57)
42.9% (84)
-13.1%
On penalty kill, Reasoner has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reasoner shoots left. Stepan is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (620).
Stepan shoots right. Reasoner is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (177).
Home / Away
Stepan
Reasoner
Home
45.6% (463)
54.8% (263)
Away
43.3% (404)
51.5% (309)
By Period
Stepan
Reasoner
P1
50.2%
55.7%
P2
39.4%
47.8%
P3
45.7%
54.9%
OT
38.9%
100.0%
Final 5 min
48.2%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
44.5%
Reasoner
50.0%▼
52.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2012 | 2 | 16:15 | Defensive | Marty Reasoner |
| Feb 24, 2012 | 2 | 08:11 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 26, 2011 | 1 | 16:08 | Neutral | Marty Reasoner |
| Dec 26, 2011 | 1 | 09:48 | Neutral | Marty Reasoner |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 3 | 05:48 | Defensive | Marty Reasoner |
| Nov 15, 2011 | 3 | 13:44 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 15, 2011 | 1 | 14:43 | Neutral | Marty Reasoner |