Scouting Report
Matt Stajan holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Stajan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 45.5% vs Stajan 48.2% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 57.1%
Defensive zone
Stajan 81.2%
Neutral zone
Stajan 61.2%
Result
Matt Stajan favored at 57.7%
42.3%
57.7%
Stepan
Stajan
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Stepan
Stajan
Last 10: Stepan 7-3 Stajan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
Stajan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stajan
0
1
Stepan
Stajan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
4
2
Stepan
Stajan
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Stajan
Edge
Even Strength
43.8% (1,141)
49.2% (886)
-5.4%
Power Play
52.2% (253)
37.1% (35)
+15.1%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (118)
44.6% (175)
-1.4%
On power play, Stepan has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stajan shoots left. Stepan is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,028).
Stepan shoots right. Stajan is 49.0% vs right-shot opponents (388).
Home / Away
Stepan
Stajan
Home
47.8% (828)
51.2% (572)
Away
42.0% (684)
44.7% (524)
By Period
Stepan
Stajan
P1
49.5%
48.4%
P2
42.0%
45.2%
P3
44.3%
50.8%
OT
41.2%
40.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
45.2%
Stajan
50.0%▬
49.5%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2014 | 1 | 19:14 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 15, 2013 | 3 | 12:07 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |
| Dec 15, 2013 | 3 | 02:28 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |
| Dec 15, 2013 | 2 | 15:57 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 15, 2013 | 2 | 02:03 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 15, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 15, 2013 | 1 | 15:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 15, 2013 | 1 | 12:37 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 15, 2013 | 1 | 10:45 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Dec 15, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |