Scouting Report
Patrik Berglund holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Berglund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 45.1% vs Berglund 48.7% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Berglund 70.5%
Defensive zone
Berglund 88.1%
Neutral zone
Berglund 76.8%
Result
Patrik Berglund favored at 75.0%
25.0%
75.0%
Stepan
Berglund
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Stepan
Berglund
Last 7: Stepan 6-1 Berglund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Berglund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
4
1
Stepan
Berglund
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Berglund
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (680)
48.3% (895)
-3.4%
Power Play
50.8% (118)
50.4% (141)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
29.8% (57)
48.3% (120)
-18.5%
On penalty kill, Berglund has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Berglund shoots left. Stepan is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (620).
Stepan shoots right. Berglund is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Stepan
Berglund
Home
45.6% (463)
50.9% (593)
Away
43.3% (404)
46.1% (575)
By Period
Stepan
Berglund
P1
50.2%
50.9%
P2
39.4%
45.3%
P3
45.7%
50.8%
OT
38.9%
39.1%
Final 5 min
48.2%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
44.5%
Berglund
60.0%▲
57.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 2 | 16:18 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 2 | 12:47 | Neutral | Patrik Berglund |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 2 | 02:32 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 1 | 12:38 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 1 | 11:03 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 1 | 07:06 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |