Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Gionta shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Gionta 41.2% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 89.1%
Defensive zone
Stepan 66.4%
Neutral zone
Stepan 75.2%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 75.3%
75.3%
24.7%
Stepan
Gionta
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
4
(13 meetings)
9
4
Stepan
Gionta
Last 10: Stepan 6-4 Gionta
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Gionta
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
Gionta
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Stepan
Gionta
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Gionta
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
40.6% (1,902)
+5.9%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
61.5% (26)
-12.7%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
40.1% (292)
+4.1%
On power play, Gionta has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gionta shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Gionta is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (707).
Home / Away
Stepan
Gionta
Home
47.6% (6,608)
42.6% (1,074)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
39.1% (1,147)
By Period
Stepan
Gionta
P1
47.5%
40.8%
P2
45.6%
41.8%
P3
46.8%
39.8%
OT
40.7%
35.7%
Final 5 min
47.5%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Gionta
50.0%▲
48.0%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2016 | 1 | 17:13 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 8, 2016 | 1 | 03:04 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 18, 2015 | 2 | 10:40 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 22, 2014 | 2 | 16:28 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 26, 2014 | 3 | 07:03 | Neutral | Stephen Gionta |
| Oct 19, 2013 | 2 | 06:00 | Neutral | Stephen Gionta |
| Oct 19, 2013 | 1 | 07:22 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 21, 2013 | 3 | 00:08 | Neutral | Stephen Gionta |
| Apr 21, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Stephen Gionta |
| Mar 19, 2013 | 3 | 16:36 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 19, 2013 | 3 | 12:48 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 19, 2013 | 2 | 17:38 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 3 | 10:31 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |