Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 41.4% vs right-shot opponents — Gionta shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.2% vs Gionta 38.2% (+10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 83.4%
Defensive zone
Stepan 60.9%
Neutral zone
Stepan 80.5%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 77.2%
77.2%
22.8%
Stepan
Gionta
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Stepan
Gionta
Last 6: Stepan 4-2 Gionta
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Gionta
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
2
Stepan
Gionta
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Gionta
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (750)
35.5% (335)
+12.5%
Power Play
36.3% (113)
66.7% (3)
-30.4%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (113)
30.8% (52)
+10.8%
On power play, Gionta has a +30.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gionta shoots right. Stepan is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (360).
Stepan shoots right. Gionta is 34.8% vs right-shot opponents (115).
Home / Away
Stepan
Gionta
Home
47.4% (460)
34.9% (186)
Away
44.5% (517)
35.3% (204)
By Period
Stepan
Gionta
P1
50.3%
32.5%
P2
38.4%
29.7%
P3
49.4%
42.5%
OT
27.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
45.9%
Gionta
50.0%▲
48.0%
35.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2013 | 3 | 00:08 | Neutral | Stephen Gionta |
| Apr 21, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Stephen Gionta |
| Mar 19, 2013 | 3 | 16:36 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 19, 2013 | 3 | 12:48 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 19, 2013 | 2 | 17:38 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 3 | 10:31 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |