Scouting Report
Todd Marchant holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 38.4% vs left-shot opponents — Marchant shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 39.9% vs Marchant 48.3% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 73.7%
Defensive zone
Marchant 88.8%
Neutral zone
Marchant 66.6%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 53.1%
53.1%
46.9%
Stepan
Marchant
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Stepan
Marchant
Last 5: Stepan 3-2 Marchant
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
Marchant
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marchant
0
1
Stepan
Marchant
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marchant
0
1
Stepan
Marchant
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Marchant
Edge
Even Strength
38.6% (630)
50.5% (368)
-11.9%
Power Play
45.3% (64)
28.6% (7)
+16.7%
Penalty Kill
22.7% (22)
42.4% (158)
-19.7%
On penalty kill, Marchant has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marchant shoots left. Stepan is 38.4% vs left-shot opponents (492).
Stepan shoots right. Marchant is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (149).
Home / Away
Stepan
Marchant
Home
39.0% (364)
50.3% (302)
Away
38.0% (355)
45.1% (246)
By Period
Stepan
Marchant
P1
39.4%
46.3%
P2
40.6%
49.7%
P3
36.4%
48.1%
OT
12.5%
44.4%
Final 5 min
40.4%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
38.5%
Marchant
50.0%▬
50.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2011 | 3 | 08:48 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 9, 2011 | 3 | 00:35 | Defensive | Todd Marchant |
| Mar 9, 2011 | 2 | 01:38 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 9, 2011 | 1 | 19:19 | Neutral | Todd Marchant |
| Mar 9, 2011 | 1 | 04:33 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |