Scouting Report
Trevor Smith holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Stepan wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 44.5% vs Smith 51.9% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 73.0%
Defensive zone
Stepan 71.5%
Neutral zone
Stepan 72.9%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 71.8%
71.8%
28.2%
Stepan
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Stepan
Smith
Last 5: Stepan 1-4 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Smith
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
4
Stepan
Smith
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (942)
53.7% (449)
-10.2%
Power Play
48.1% (162)
80.0% (10)
-31.9%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (128)
43.1% (102)
-0.1%
On power play, Smith has a +31.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Stepan is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (812).
Stepan shoots right. Smith is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (211).
Home / Away
Stepan
Smith
Home
45.6% (629)
55.0% (280)
Away
42.5% (603)
49.5% (281)
By Period
Stepan
Smith
P1
44.7%
52.3%
P2
43.7%
52.1%
P3
43.9%
52.3%
Final 5 min
50.5%
60.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
44.1%
Smith
46.0%▼
52.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2015 | 3 | 12:51 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |
| Feb 10, 2015 | 2 | 08:41 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 10, 2015 | 2 | 04:21 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |
| Feb 10, 2015 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |
| Feb 10, 2015 | 1 | 09:39 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |