Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Brouwer on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 45.9% vs right-shot opponents — Brouwer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.9% vs Brouwer 47.6% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 73.6%
Defensive zone
Brouwer 59.5%
Neutral zone
Stepan 56.9%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Stepan
Brouwer
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Stepan
Brouwer
Last 6: Stepan 4-2 Brouwer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Brouwer
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brouwer
1
2
Stepan
Brouwer
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Brouwer
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Brouwer
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (1,210)
46.5% (99)
+0.5%
Power Play
51.7% (232)
56.0% (25)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (108)
44.1% (93)
+3.1%
On power play, Brouwer has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brouwer shoots right. Stepan is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Stepan shoots right. Brouwer is 43.1% vs right-shot opponents (51).
Home / Away
Stepan
Brouwer
Home
48.2% (761)
47.7% (111)
Away
47.3% (789)
45.3% (106)
By Period
Stepan
Brouwer
P1
46.3%
50.8%
P2
50.4%
50.0%
P3
46.3%
40.8%
OT
55.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.7%
Brouwer
38.0%▼
46.0%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2018 | 3 | 15:19 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 3, 2018 | 3 | 03:14 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 3, 2018 | 2 | 15:37 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 3, 2018 | 1 | 08:32 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 19, 2018 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Troy Brouwer |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 2 | 03:24 | Defensive | Troy Brouwer |