Scouting Report
Zack Smith holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 21 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Smith 50.6% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 34-29 in 63 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 61.9%
Defensive zone
Smith 65.5%
Neutral zone
Smith 57.4%
Result
Zack Smith favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
Stepan
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
34
-
29
(63 meetings)
34
29
Stepan
Smith
Last 10: Stepan 6-4 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
12
9
Stepan
Smith
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
7
14
Stepan
Smith
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
15
6
Stepan
Smith
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
51.6% (5,265)
-5.1%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
51.2% (342)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
45.3% (985)
-1.1%
On even strength, Smith has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Smith is 47.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,394).
Home / Away
Stepan
Smith
Home
47.6% (6,608)
52.5% (3,289)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
48.7% (3,310)
By Period
Stepan
Smith
P1
47.5%
49.9%
P2
45.6%
50.0%
P3
46.8%
51.9%
OT
40.7%
51.6%
Final 5 min
47.5%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2020 | 3 | 02:19 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 2 | 10:55 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 2 | 02:49 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Jan 22, 2019 | 1 | 05:05 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 22, 2019 | 1 | 04:50 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 3, 2018 | 2 | 16:19 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 3, 2018 | 2 | 16:13 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 3, 2018 | 2 | 05:34 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 3, 2018 | 1 | 11:54 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 27, 2016 | 3 | 10:46 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 27, 2016 | 2 | 14:35 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 24, 2016 | 3 | 11:45 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 24, 2016 | 3 | 09:11 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 24, 2016 | 3 | 01:45 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Nov 14, 2015 | 2 | 15:07 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 5, 2014 | 3 | 19:20 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 5, 2014 | 3 | 11:17 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Apr 5, 2014 | 1 | 04:22 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 3 | 11:52 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 1 | 16:35 | Defensive | Zack Smith |