Scouting Report
Cal O'Reilly holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Brassard on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.9% vs left-shot opponents — Brassard shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 52.2% vs Brassard 50.2% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Brassard 66.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 50.6%
Neutral zone
Brassard 58.5%
Result
Derick Brassard favored at 63.0%
37.0%
63.0%
O'Reilly
Brassard
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
O'Reilly
Brassard
Last 5: O'Reilly 2-3 Brassard
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Brassard
1
3
O'Reilly
Brassard
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Brassard
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Brassard
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (98)
48.9% (1,114)
+4.2%
Power Play
63.6% (11)
57.8% (211)
+5.8%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brassard shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (65).
O'Reilly shoots left. Brassard is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (828).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Brassard
Home
56.0% (84)
50.9% (666)
Away
48.0% (25)
49.6% (680)
By Period
O'Reilly
Brassard
P1
47.4%
53.3%
P2
60.6%
47.5%
P3
55.3%
49.9%
Final 5 min
46.4%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
52.0%▲
50.5%
54.1%
Brassard
42.0%▼
52.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2016 | 3 | 19:26 | Offensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2016 | 3 | 03:18 | Offensive | Derick Brassard |
| Mar 8, 2016 | 3 | 03:04 | Offensive | Derick Brassard |
| Mar 8, 2016 | 2 | 16:57 | Defensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2016 | 1 | 15:00 | Offensive | Derick Brassard |