Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Brassard on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Brassard wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brassard 45.7% vs Kesler 53.3% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kesler 85.0%
Defensive zone
Kesler 74.6%
Neutral zone
Kesler 92.4%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 81.0%
19.0%
81.0%
Brassard
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Brassard
Kesler
Last 6: Brassard 5-1 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Brassard
Kesler
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brassard
3
0
Brassard
Kesler
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Brassard
1
0
Brassard
Kesler
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brassard
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
45.1% (530)
53.8% (981)
-8.7%
Power Play
48.3% (58)
56.9% (160)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
49.2% (185)
+0.8%
On even strength, Kesler has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Brassard is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (171).
Brassard shoots left. Kesler is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (959).
Home / Away
Brassard
Kesler
Home
45.4% (284)
54.1% (690)
Away
44.7% (333)
53.1% (661)
By Period
Brassard
Kesler
P1
51.2%
52.3%
P2
40.3%
52.8%
P3
43.2%
56.3%
OT
50.0%
44.1%
Final 5 min
43.6%
58.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brassard
42.0%▼
52.0%
45.1%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2012 | 3 | 00:30 | Defensive | Derick Brassard |
| Mar 17, 2012 | 2 | 11:18 | Defensive | Derick Brassard |
| Mar 17, 2012 | 1 | 16:16 | Neutral | Derick Brassard |
| Mar 17, 2012 | 1 | 06:54 | Defensive | Derick Brassard |
| Mar 17, 2012 | 1 | 04:34 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 13, 2011 | OT | 00:25 | Offensive | Derick Brassard |