Scouting Report
Darren Helm holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Helm on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Helm wins 44.5% vs left-shot opponents — Toninato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Helm 45.9% vs Toninato 44.9% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toninato 66.1%
Defensive zone
Helm 63.4%
Neutral zone
Helm 53.5%
Result
Darren Helm favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Helm
Toninato
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Helm
Toninato
Last 7: Helm 4-3 Toninato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Helm
Toninato
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Helm
2
1
Helm
Toninato
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Helm
Toninato
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Helm
Toninato
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (135)
43.5% (184)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
40.8% (98)
29.4% (17)
+11.4%
On penalty kill, Helm has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toninato shoots left. Helm is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (155).
Helm shoots left. Toninato is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (142).
Home / Away
Helm
Toninato
Home
45.7% (105)
45.6% (114)
Away
43.0% (128)
38.5% (91)
By Period
Helm
Toninato
P1
42.1%
37.3%
P2
41.0%
41.7%
P3
50.6%
48.6%
Final 5 min
40.7%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Helm
34.0%▼
44.5%
44.2%
Toninato
42.0%▼
46.5%
42.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 17:39 | Defensive | Darren Helm |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 05:03 | Neutral | Darren Helm |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 3 | 02:28 | Defensive | Darren Helm |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 2 | 05:47 | Offensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 1 | 13:29 | Defensive | Dominic Toninato |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 1 | 13:22 | Offensive | Darren Helm |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 1 | 05:10 | Neutral | Dominic Toninato |