Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Caggiula wins 41.1% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Caggiula 43.5% vs Dowd 48.1% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowd 56.2%
Defensive zone
Caggiula 65.4%
Neutral zone
Caggiula 54.8%
Result
Drake Caggiula favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Caggiula
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Caggiula
Dowd
Last 5: Caggiula 2-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Caggiula
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Caggiula
1
0
Caggiula
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Caggiula
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Caggiula
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
40.6% (276)
47.2% (608)
-6.6%
Power Play
66.7% (6)
53.1% (96)
+13.6%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
0.0% (3)
+50.0%
On penalty kill, Caggiula has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Caggiula is 41.1% vs right-shot opponents (112).
Caggiula shoots left. Dowd is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (483).
Home / Away
Caggiula
Dowd
Home
46.9% (145)
48.7% (384)
Away
35.3% (139)
46.7% (323)
By Period
Caggiula
Dowd
P1
41.1%
50.2%
P2
40.2%
47.5%
P3
43.0%
46.2%
OT
0.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
44.4%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Caggiula
38.0%▲
36.5%
41.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2017 | 3 | 08:29 | Defensive | Drake Caggiula |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 3 | 01:40 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 1 | 19:45 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 1 | 01:49 | Offensive | Drake Caggiula |
| Dec 29, 2016 | 3 | 19:46 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |