Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (41.2% vs 41.4%). Look for Caggiula on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Caggiula wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kalinin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Caggiula 43.5% vs Kalinin 44.5% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Caggiula 58.4%
Defensive zone
Kalinin 66.5%
Neutral zone
Kalinin 62.8%
Result
Sergey Kalinin favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Caggiula
Kalinin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Caggiula
Kalinin
Last 6: Caggiula 4-2 Kalinin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Caggiula
Kalinin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kalinin
0
1
Caggiula
Kalinin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Caggiula
3
0
Caggiula
Kalinin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Caggiula
Kalinin
Edge
Even Strength
40.6% (276)
41.3% (155)
-0.7%
Power Play
66.7% (6)
100.0% (1)
-33.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
38.9% (18)
+11.1%
On power play, Kalinin has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kalinin shoots left. Caggiula is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (172).
Caggiula shoots left. Kalinin is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (116).
Home / Away
Caggiula
Kalinin
Home
46.9% (145)
42.9% (112)
Away
35.3% (139)
38.7% (62)
By Period
Caggiula
Kalinin
P1
41.1%
51.8%
P2
40.2%
32.1%
P3
43.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
44.4%
35.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Caggiula
38.0%▲
36.5%
41.2%
Kalinin
44.0%▲
40.5%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2017 | 3 | 12:36 | Neutral | Drake Caggiula |
| Jan 12, 2017 | 2 | 06:35 | Neutral | Drake Caggiula |
| Jan 12, 2017 | 2 | 01:10 | Neutral | Drake Caggiula |
| Jan 12, 2017 | 1 | 11:12 | Offensive | Sergey Kalinin |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 3 | 12:09 | Offensive | Drake Caggiula |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 1 | 13:31 | Defensive | Sergey Kalinin |