Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Stafford wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stafford 48.5% vs Spezza 54.7% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 62.1%
Defensive zone
Spezza 70.0%
Neutral zone
Spezza 67.3%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 67.8%
32.2%
67.8%
Stafford
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Stafford
Spezza
Last 7: Stafford 4-3 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stafford
2
0
Stafford
Spezza
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
3
Stafford
Spezza
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stafford
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (571)
54.4% (7,990)
-4.3%
Power Play
49.2% (189)
56.8% (1,726)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
34.2% (79)
52.7% (643)
-18.5%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Stafford is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (285).
Stafford shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Home / Away
Stafford
Spezza
Home
50.4% (452)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
45.9% (388)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Stafford
Spezza
P1
50.0%
55.7%
P2
47.5%
54.4%
P3
47.9%
54.1%
OT
42.9%
51.5%
Final 5 min
46.3%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stafford
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.3%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2014 | 1 | 11:17 | Defensive | Drew Stafford |
| Feb 6, 2014 | 1 | 03:05 | Offensive | Drew Stafford |
| Feb 6, 2014 | 1 | 00:19 | Offensive | Drew Stafford |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 3 | 18:29 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 2 | 02:24 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 1 | 15:15 | Defensive | Drew Stafford |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 1 | 12:43 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |