Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.8% vs 54.0%). Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stafford 52.5% vs Spezza 53.7% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 67.1%
Defensive zone
Spezza 52.2%
Neutral zone
Spezza 55.1%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Stafford
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Stafford
Spezza
Last 5: Stafford 3-2 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stafford
2
0
Stafford
Spezza
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
2
Stafford
Spezza
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stafford
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (155)
53.9% (1,097)
+2.9%
Power Play
47.6% (21)
54.8% (250)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
38.1% (21)
52.8% (89)
-14.7%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Stafford is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (74).
Stafford shoots right. Spezza is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (416).
Home / Away
Stafford
Spezza
Home
58.4% (89)
55.8% (695)
Away
50.0% (108)
52.2% (741)
By Period
Stafford
Spezza
P1
65.5%
50.3%
P2
47.9%
54.7%
P3
49.3%
56.0%
OT
100.0%
73.7%
Final 5 min
54.7%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stafford
40.0%▼
47.0%
53.8%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2014 | 1 | 11:17 | Defensive | Drew Stafford |
| Feb 6, 2014 | 1 | 03:05 | Offensive | Drew Stafford |
| Feb 6, 2014 | 1 | 00:19 | Offensive | Drew Stafford |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 3 | 18:29 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 2 | 02:24 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |