Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +15.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Brown wins 40.5% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brown 41.5% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-15.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Brown 88.8%
Defensive zone
Brown 85.3%
Neutral zone
Brown 85.2%
Result
Dustin Brown favored at 86.1%
86.1%
13.9%
Brown
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Brown
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Brown
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
Brown
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brown
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
37.4% (198)
53.6% (8,791)
-16.2%
Power Play
46.9% (49)
58.2% (2,122)
-11.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (39)
50.9% (1,138)
-17.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Brown is 40.5% vs right-shot opponents (74).
Brown shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Home / Away
Brown
Pavelski
Home
38.6% (145)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
38.3% (141)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Brown
Pavelski
P1
34.3%
53.5%
P2
37.6%
55.2%
P3
45.5%
53.9%
Final 5 min
36.2%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brown
28.0%▼
36.0%
38.5%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 16:59 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 2 | 02:30 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 1 | 05:35 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 14, 2013 | 2 | 08:54 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |