Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +13.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Penner on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Penner wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Penner 43.3% vs Spezza 54.7% (-13.2%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Penner 68.3%
Defensive zone
Penner 52.4%
Neutral zone
Penner 57.7%
Result
Dustin Penner favored at 59.1%
59.1%
40.9%
Penner
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Penner
Spezza
Last 10: Penner 5-5 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Penner
2
1
Penner
Spezza
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
2
Penner
Spezza
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
3
Penner
Spezza
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Penner
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (214)
54.4% (7,990)
-13.7%
Power Play
45.5% (112)
56.8% (1,726)
-11.3%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (60)
52.7% (643)
-16.0%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Penner is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (132).
Penner shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Home / Away
Penner
Spezza
Home
44.4% (207)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
38.3% (183)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Penner
Spezza
P1
36.1%
55.7%
P2
36.6%
54.4%
P3
53.6%
54.1%
OT
25.0%
51.5%
Final 5 min
46.2%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Penner
34.0%▼
42.0%
41.5%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2011 | 3 | 14:10 | Neutral | Dustin Penner |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 3 | 11:51 | Offensive | Dustin Penner |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 3 | 09:07 | Offensive | Dustin Penner |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dustin Penner |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 1 | 13:30 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 1 | 02:26 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 29, 2010 | 3 | 12:14 | Defensive | Dustin Penner |
| Nov 29, 2010 | 2 | 13:37 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 29, 2010 | 1 | 07:11 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |