Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Penner wins 39.9% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Penner 43.3% vs Thornton 54.3% (-12.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Penner 83.7%
Defensive zone
Penner 78.8%
Neutral zone
Penner 81.3%
Result
Dustin Penner favored at 82.3%
82.3%
17.7%
Penner
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Penner
Thornton
Last 7: Penner 1-6 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
5
Penner
Thornton
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Penner
Thornton
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Penner
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (214)
53.5% (6,640)
-12.8%
Power Play
45.5% (112)
57.2% (1,387)
-11.7%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (60)
56.7% (427)
-20.0%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Penner is 39.9% vs left-shot opponents (258).
Penner shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Home / Away
Penner
Thornton
Home
44.4% (207)
55.8% (4,271)
Away
38.3% (183)
52.8% (4,219)
By Period
Penner
Thornton
P1
36.1%
55.0%
P2
36.6%
53.3%
P3
53.6%
54.4%
OT
25.0%
56.4%
Final 5 min
46.2%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Penner
34.0%▼
42.0%
41.5%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2013 | 1 | 05:58 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 1 | 08:41 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 13, 2011 | 2 | 18:41 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 21, 2010 | 2 | 16:10 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 21, 2010 | 1 | 17:18 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 27, 2010 | 3 | 09:32 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 27, 2010 | 2 | 03:31 | Defensive | Dustin Penner |