Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Penner wins 41.1% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Penner 44.6% vs Thornton 54.1% (-11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Penner 79.3%
Defensive zone
Penner 69.7%
Neutral zone
Penner 72.8%
Result
Dustin Penner favored at 76.1%
76.1%
23.9%
Penner
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Penner
Thornton
Last 6: Penner 1-5 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
4
Penner
Thornton
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Penner
Thornton
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Penner
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
41.1% (151)
52.8% (922)
-11.7%
Power Play
50.0% (92)
56.1% (196)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (59)
62.0% (100)
-26.4%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +26.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Penner is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (197).
Penner shoots left. Thornton is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (913).
Home / Away
Penner
Thornton
Home
47.5% (158)
54.9% (597)
Away
37.8% (148)
54.0% (643)
By Period
Penner
Thornton
P1
38.1%
53.0%
P2
36.2%
51.2%
P3
54.7%
57.8%
OT
27.3%
72.7%
Final 5 min
50.6%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Penner
34.0%▼
42.0%
42.8%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2011 | 1 | 08:41 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Jan 13, 2011 | 2 | 18:41 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 21, 2010 | 2 | 16:10 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 21, 2010 | 1 | 17:18 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 27, 2010 | 3 | 09:32 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 27, 2010 | 2 | 03:31 | Defensive | Dustin Penner |