Scouting Report
Samuel Pahlsson holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Penner on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Penner wins 41.1% vs left-shot opponents — Pahlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Penner 44.6% vs Pahlsson 51.9% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Penner 65.9%
Defensive zone
Pahlsson 88.5%
Neutral zone
Pahlsson 63.9%
Result
Samuel Pahlsson favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
Penner
Pahlsson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Penner
Pahlsson
Last 7: Penner 4-3 Pahlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Penner
3
1
Penner
Pahlsson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pahlsson
1
2
Penner
Pahlsson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Penner
Pahlsson
Edge
Even Strength
41.1% (151)
51.8% (934)
-10.7%
Power Play
50.0% (92)
57.9% (19)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (59)
52.4% (332)
-16.8%
On penalty kill, Pahlsson has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pahlsson shoots left. Penner is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (197).
Penner shoots left. Pahlsson is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (958).
Home / Away
Penner
Pahlsson
Home
47.5% (158)
56.5% (628)
Away
37.8% (148)
47.8% (670)
By Period
Penner
Pahlsson
P1
38.1%
55.9%
P2
36.2%
49.4%
P3
54.7%
50.8%
OT
27.3%
37.5%
Final 5 min
50.6%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Penner
34.0%▼
42.0%
42.8%
Pahlsson
54.0%▼
59.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2011 | 1 | 11:27 | Offensive | Samuel Pahlsson |
| Dec 16, 2010 | 3 | 13:29 | Offensive | Dustin Penner |
| Dec 16, 2010 | 2 | 11:16 | Defensive | Dustin Penner |
| Dec 16, 2010 | 1 | 18:20 | Offensive | Dustin Penner |
| Oct 28, 2010 | 3 | 07:17 | Defensive | Samuel Pahlsson |
| Oct 28, 2010 | 2 | 17:48 | Offensive | Dustin Penner |
| Oct 28, 2010 | 1 | 07:31 | Defensive | Samuel Pahlsson |