Scouting Report
Dylan Gambrell holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Mercer on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Mercer wins 37.2% vs right-shot opponents — Gambrell shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 37.5% vs Gambrell 49.0% (-13.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gambrell 51.1%
Defensive zone
Gambrell 96.2%
Neutral zone
Gambrell 78.8%
Result
Dylan Gambrell favored at 73.4%
26.6%
73.4%
Mercer
Gambrell
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Mercer
Gambrell
Last 9: Mercer 6-3 Gambrell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
1
Mercer
Gambrell
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Gambrell
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
3
1
Mercer
Gambrell
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Gambrell
Edge
Even Strength
35.4% (548)
51.4% (504)
-16.0%
Power Play
42.9% (35)
33.3% (6)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (7)
36.2% (94)
-36.2%
On penalty kill, Gambrell has a +36.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gambrell shoots right. Mercer is 37.2% vs right-shot opponents (183).
Mercer shoots right. Gambrell is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (194).
Home / Away
Mercer
Gambrell
Home
39.9% (283)
46.7% (240)
Away
31.3% (307)
50.3% (364)
By Period
Mercer
Gambrell
P1
37.7%
43.0%
P2
32.1%
53.7%
P3
37.7%
49.8%
Final 5 min
33.3%
44.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
35.4%
Gambrell
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 05:17 | Defensive | Dylan Gambrell |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 06:39 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 1 | 19:43 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 3 | 01:47 | Offensive | Dylan Gambrell |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 2 | 12:19 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 2 | 12:42 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 2 | 05:15 | Neutral | Dylan Gambrell |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 2 | 01:54 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 6, 2021 | 1 | 03:08 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |