Scouting Report
Andrew Shaw holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Shaw wins 55.7% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shaw 53.7% vs Larkin 46.2% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 54.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 69.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 60.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 66.1%
33.9%
66.1%
Shaw
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Shaw
Larkin
Last 8: Shaw 3-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
3
Shaw
Larkin
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
Shaw
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shaw
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (336)
45.5% (391)
+10.8%
Power Play
51.0% (96)
41.4% (29)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
50.0% (12)
-33.3%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Shaw is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (309).
Shaw shoots right. Larkin is 40.5% vs right-shot opponents (195).
Home / Away
Shaw
Larkin
Home
58.1% (234)
47.0% (181)
Away
50.5% (204)
44.2% (251)
By Period
Shaw
Larkin
P1
53.8%
42.7%
P2
58.3%
52.4%
P3
52.0%
41.8%
OT
33.3%
20.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shaw
52.0%▲
48.5%
54.6%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2017 | 3 | 14:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 1 | 15:11 | Defensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 1 | 11:44 | Defensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 1 | 08:06 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 21, 2017 | 2 | 05:03 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2016 | 3 | 11:49 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Nov 26, 2016 | 2 | 14:40 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 26, 2016 | 1 | 16:46 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |