Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Tavares 57.2% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 11-11 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 63.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 73.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 51.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 55.1%
55.1%
44.9%
Larkin
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
11
(22 meetings)
11
11
Larkin
Tavares
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
7
Larkin
Tavares
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
7
2
Larkin
Tavares
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
Tavares
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
58.0% (914)
-6.3%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
57.0% (235)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
57.9% (19)
-9.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Home / Away
Larkin
Tavares
Home
52.4% (647)
57.8% (614)
Away
52.7% (643)
57.8% (554)
By Period
Larkin
Tavares
P1
52.2%
58.0%
P2
53.1%
56.9%
P3
51.7%
58.4%
OT
61.3%
57.7%
Final 5 min
55.2%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | OT | 02:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | OT | 00:24 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 17:54 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 15:25 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 06:56 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 04:15 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 09:31 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 04:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 01:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 16:25 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 03:24 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 09:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 03:29 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 19:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 19:50 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 19:15 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 10:04 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:38 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:03 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |