Scouting Report
Leo Komarov holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 49.9% vs Komarov 51.9% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 74.3%
Defensive zone
Komarov 66.7%
Neutral zone
Komarov 53.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 60.6%
60.6%
39.4%
Larkin
Komarov
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Larkin
Komarov
Last 5: Larkin 3-2 Komarov
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Komarov
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Komarov
0
1
Larkin
Komarov
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Komarov
0
1
Larkin
Komarov
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Komarov
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (1,057)
48.1% (79)
+0.4%
Power Play
61.4% (140)
100.0% (1)
-38.6%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (117)
55.3% (132)
-6.6%
On power play, Komarov has a +38.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Komarov shoots left. Larkin is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Larkin shoots left. Komarov is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (130).
Home / Away
Larkin
Komarov
Home
51.4% (652)
57.1% (105)
Away
48.5% (662)
48.6% (107)
By Period
Larkin
Komarov
P1
49.1%
54.4%
P2
52.0%
52.3%
P3
48.0%
53.1%
OT
52.6%
42.9%
Final 5 min
46.8%
64.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
49.9%
Komarov
46.0%▲
42.0%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2018 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 3 | 19:23 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 3 | 08:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 18, 2017 | 1 | 18:15 | Neutral | Leo Komarov |
| Oct 18, 2017 | 1 | 09:09 | Defensive | Leo Komarov |