Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.1% vs 54.2%). Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 17 meetings). Belanger wins 56.4% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Belanger 54.9% vs Pavelski 54.1% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 20-14 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 78.6%
Defensive zone
Belanger 61.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 52.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 60.8%
39.2%
60.8%
Belanger
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
20
(34 meetings)
14
20
Belanger
Pavelski
Last 10: Belanger 4-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
12
Belanger
Pavelski
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
7
Belanger
Pavelski
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Belanger
4
1
Belanger
Pavelski
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Belanger
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,043)
53.6% (8,791)
+3.5%
Power Play
57.8% (166)
58.2% (2,122)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (459)
50.9% (1,138)
-6.0%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Belanger is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (839).
Belanger shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Belanger
Pavelski
Home
56.3% (1,350)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
53.8% (1,332)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Belanger
Pavelski
P1
53.5%
53.5%
P2
55.4%
55.2%
P3
56.2%
53.9%
OT
53.1%
52.3%
Final 5 min
52.9%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Belanger
52.0%▼
53.5%
55.1%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2013 | 1 | 17:28 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 3 | 14:00 | Offensive | Eric Belanger |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 2 | 12:50 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 12, 2012 | 2 | 00:53 | Defensive | Eric Belanger |
| Mar 12, 2012 | 1 | 07:55 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 23, 2012 | OT | 00:53 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 23, 2012 | 1 | 08:00 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 3 | 19:31 | Offensive | Eric Belanger |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 3 | 18:29 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 3 | 13:12 | Offensive | Eric Belanger |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 3 | 06:28 | Offensive | Eric Belanger |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 2 | 17:59 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 1 | 13:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 8, 2011 | 1 | 15:58 | Neutral | Eric Belanger |
| Apr 8, 2011 | 1 | 13:17 | Defensive | Eric Belanger |
| Apr 8, 2011 | 1 | 10:24 | Defensive | Eric Belanger |
| Mar 26, 2011 | 3 | 14:33 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 26, 2011 | 3 | 11:52 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 26, 2011 | 1 | 18:50 | Defensive | Eric Belanger |
| Feb 1, 2011 | 3 | 09:55 | Defensive | Eric Belanger |