Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on defensive-zone draws (85% H2H, 13 meetings). MacKenzie wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 53.0% vs Staal 50.6% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
MacKenzie leads 20-8 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKenzie 50.4%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 90.7%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 72.7%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 73.1%
73.1%
26.9%
MacKenzie
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
8
(28 meetings)
20
8
MacKenzie
Staal
Last 10: MacKenzie 8-2 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
6
4
MacKenzie
Staal
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
11
2
MacKenzie
Staal
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
3
2
MacKenzie
Staal
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (3,660)
50.5% (10,347)
+4.4%
Power Play
55.9% (102)
53.5% (2,023)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (1,158)
44.2% (781)
+2.5%
On even strength, MacKenzie has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. MacKenzie is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,097).
MacKenzie shoots left. Staal is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (8,336).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Staal
Home
54.0% (2,527)
52.6% (6,558)
Away
52.1% (2,398)
48.6% (6,664)
By Period
MacKenzie
Staal
P1
51.9%
50.0%
P2
53.0%
51.1%
P3
54.0%
50.4%
OT
65.7%
55.2%
Final 5 min
52.9%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
53.1%
Staal
44.0%▼
47.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2018 | 1 | 10:17 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 22, 2017 | 3 | 09:25 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Dec 22, 2017 | 3 | 04:16 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 22, 2017 | 2 | 16:57 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Mar 10, 2017 | 3 | 01:28 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 10, 2017 | 2 | 19:06 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 14:56 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 11:27 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 05:11 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 2 | 17:21 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 13, 2015 | 2 | 17:49 | Offensive | Eric Staal |
| Apr 2, 2015 | 1 | 13:28 | Defensive | Eric Staal |
| Apr 2, 2015 | 1 | 13:18 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 2 | 09:38 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Eric Staal |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 1 | 19:38 | Offensive | Eric Staal |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 3 | 07:51 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Jan 27, 2014 | 3 | 14:05 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Jan 27, 2014 | 3 | 12:12 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Jan 27, 2014 | 2 | 07:15 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |