Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Rodrigues on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 45.7% vs Thornton 54.3% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Rodrigues leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Thornton 89.3%
Defensive zone
Thornton 75.0%
Neutral zone
Thornton 84.9%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 83.6%
16.4%
83.6%
Rodrigues
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Rodrigues
Thornton
Last 10: Rodrigues 7-3 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
2
Rodrigues
Thornton
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
2
1
Rodrigues
Thornton
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
5
2
Rodrigues
Thornton
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (2,771)
53.5% (6,640)
-7.6%
Power Play
44.8% (281)
57.2% (1,387)
-12.4%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (209)
56.7% (427)
-14.6%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,312).
Rodrigues shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (3,270).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Thornton
Home
46.7% (1,745)
55.8% (4,271)
Away
44.3% (1,516)
52.8% (4,219)
By Period
Rodrigues
Thornton
P1
46.7%
55.0%
P2
45.9%
53.3%
P3
44.0%
54.4%
OT
50.0%
56.4%
Final 5 min
48.1%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
44.0%▬
44.0%
45.6%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2021 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 3 | 11:55 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 3 | 08:01 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 2 | 09:05 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 17:08 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 10:34 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 05:26 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 01:28 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 2 | 14:42 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 2 | 05:19 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 2 | 01:11 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 27, 2018 | 1 | 05:29 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |