Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Rodrigues on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Rodrigues wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.6% vs Thornton 49.5% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 75.5%
Defensive zone
Thornton 50.8%
Neutral zone
Thornton 67.0%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 65.1%
34.9%
65.1%
Rodrigues
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Rodrigues
Thornton
Last 8: Rodrigues 6-2 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Rodrigues
Thornton
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
2
0
Rodrigues
Thornton
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
3
1
Rodrigues
Thornton
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (224)
48.9% (583)
-2.5%
Power Play
50.0% (8)
52.5% (59)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (25)
58.3% (12)
-10.3%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Rodrigues is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (189).
Rodrigues shoots right. Thornton is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (247).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Thornton
Home
46.2% (130)
51.6% (341)
Away
47.2% (127)
47.0% (313)
By Period
Rodrigues
Thornton
P1
50.0%
53.9%
P2
46.8%
46.9%
P3
43.2%
47.0%
Final 5 min
62.5%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
46.7%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2020 | 3 | 11:55 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 3 | 08:01 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 2 | 09:05 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 17:08 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 10:34 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 05:26 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Feb 29, 2020 | 1 | 01:28 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |