Scouting Report
Evgeni Malkin holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Caggiula wins 38.5% vs left-shot opponents — Malkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Caggiula 46.2% vs Malkin 46.1% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 52.6%
Defensive zone
Caggiula 51.1%
Neutral zone
Malkin 52.5%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Caggiula
Malkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Caggiula
Malkin
Last 7: Caggiula 1-6 Malkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Caggiula
Malkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
0
1
Caggiula
Malkin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Malkin
0
4
Caggiula
Malkin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Caggiula
Malkin
Edge
Even Strength
38.5% (39)
46.2% (807)
-7.7%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
30.4% (23)
+19.6%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
33.3% (3)
-33.3%
On penalty kill, Malkin has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Malkin shoots left. Caggiula is 38.5% vs left-shot opponents (26).
Caggiula shoots left. Malkin is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (611).
Home / Away
Caggiula
Malkin
Home
47.8% (23)
45.1% (450)
Away
25.0% (20)
46.4% (384)
By Period
Caggiula
Malkin
P1
37.5%
48.2%
P2
40.0%
43.5%
P3
30.0%
46.0%
Final 5 min
33.3%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Caggiula
38.0%▲
36.5%
37.2%
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2019 | 3 | 02:20 | Offensive | Drake Caggiula |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 2 | 17:03 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 2 | 16:59 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 2 | 12:19 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 2 | 09:49 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 2 | 06:28 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 1 | 05:43 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |