Scouting Report
Joel Ward holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Malkin wins 43.0% vs right-shot opponents — Ward shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.9% vs Ward 48.4% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Malkin leads 11-6 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Malkin 63.9%
Defensive zone
Ward 83.5%
Neutral zone
Ward 72.0%
Result
Joel Ward favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Malkin
Ward
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
6
(17 meetings)
11
6
Malkin
Ward
Last 10: Malkin 6-4 Ward
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
8
1
Malkin
Ward
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ward
0
4
Malkin
Ward
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Malkin
3
1
Malkin
Ward
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Ward
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (10,081)
51.3% (1,186)
-5.7%
Power Play
50.1% (668)
53.4% (238)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
32.2% (59)
35.5% (366)
-3.3%
On even strength, Ward has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ward shoots right. Malkin is 43.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,557).
Malkin shoots left. Ward is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,320).
Home / Away
Malkin
Ward
Home
47.6% (5,395)
50.3% (870)
Away
44.0% (5,436)
46.5% (921)
By Period
Malkin
Ward
P1
45.9%
47.6%
P2
46.2%
47.5%
P3
45.2%
50.3%
OT
49.0%
30.8%
Final 5 min
46.0%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 17:50 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 1 | 19:31 | Neutral | Joel Ward |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 3 | 17:12 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 3 | 12:54 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 2 | 16:28 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 2 | 12:48 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 2 | 08:04 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 1 | 08:07 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 1 | 04:28 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Dec 1, 2015 | 3 | 02:10 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 1, 2015 | 2 | 04:40 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 1 | 02:31 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 1 | 00:12 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 15, 2014 | 1 | 08:57 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 3, 2013 | 1 | 13:29 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 13, 2011 | 2 | 10:23 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Oct 13, 2011 | 1 | 14:25 | Defensive | Joel Ward |