Scouting Report
Joel Ward holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Malkin wins 39.8% vs right-shot opponents — Ward shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 43.9% vs Ward 49.1% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 63.7%
Defensive zone
Ward 84.4%
Neutral zone
Ward 65.1%
Result
Joel Ward favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Malkin
Ward
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Malkin
Ward
Last 7: Malkin 4-3 Ward
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
3
1
Malkin
Ward
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ward
0
2
Malkin
Ward
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Ward
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Ward
Edge
Even Strength
42.7% (827)
52.8% (339)
-10.1%
Power Play
63.2% (19)
48.5% (33)
+14.7%
On power play, Malkin has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ward shoots right. Malkin is 39.8% vs right-shot opponents (299).
Malkin shoots left. Ward is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Malkin
Ward
Home
45.1% (426)
53.4% (251)
Away
41.2% (420)
43.4% (205)
By Period
Malkin
Ward
P1
41.3%
49.4%
P2
44.0%
46.9%
P3
44.7%
50.3%
Final 5 min
48.1%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
43.1%
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2016 | 3 | 17:12 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 3 | 12:54 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 2 | 16:28 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 2 | 12:48 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 2 | 08:04 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 1 | 08:07 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 1 | 04:28 | Defensive | Joel Ward |