Scouting Report
Frans Nielsen holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Backes wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nielsen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 44.9% vs Nielsen 46.6% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 60.4%
Defensive zone
Nielsen 71.9%
Neutral zone
Backes 55.1%
Result
David Backes favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Backes
Nielsen
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Backes
Nielsen
Last 6: Backes 5-1 Nielsen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
1
0
Backes
Nielsen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
0
1
Backes
Nielsen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
4
0
Backes
Nielsen
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Nielsen
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (819)
46.2% (766)
-0.9%
Power Play
42.1% (190)
43.4% (53)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (111)
48.0% (125)
-7.5%
On penalty kill, Nielsen has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nielsen shoots left. Backes is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (907).
Backes shoots right. Nielsen is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (369).
Home / Away
Backes
Nielsen
Home
42.9% (581)
46.8% (489)
Away
46.1% (557)
45.6% (476)
By Period
Backes
Nielsen
P1
40.1%
45.5%
P2
47.3%
47.5%
P3
45.1%
46.5%
OT
57.1%
37.5%
Final 5 min
40.5%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
44.5%
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 2 | 13:15 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 2 | 12:49 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 1 | 11:19 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Backes |