Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Backes wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Nielsen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 55.3% vs Nielsen 48.9% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Backes leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Backes 79.6%
Defensive zone
Backes 75.1%
Neutral zone
Backes 63.7%
Result
David Backes favored at 73.0%
73.0%
27.0%
Backes
Nielsen
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Backes
Nielsen
Last 10: Backes 6-4 Nielsen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
2
1
Backes
Nielsen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
1
3
Backes
Nielsen
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
3
0
Backes
Nielsen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Nielsen
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (228)
49.7% (759)
+6.0%
Power Play
65.2% (66)
48.1% (106)
+17.1%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (15)
37.9% (58)
+2.1%
On power play, Backes has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nielsen shoots left. Backes is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (234).
Backes shoots right. Nielsen is 49.0% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Home / Away
Backes
Nielsen
Home
55.9% (188)
49.8% (422)
Away
58.7% (121)
47.9% (501)
By Period
Backes
Nielsen
P1
53.0%
48.8%
P2
56.6%
48.7%
P3
60.8%
49.0%
Final 5 min
55.6%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
57.0%
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2018 | 2 | 18:42 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 2 | 15:08 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 17:00 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 16:54 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 11:39 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 11:27 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 07:10 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 07:06 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 04:54 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 04:44 | Neutral | David Backes |