Scouting Report
Jason Arnott holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Nielsen on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nielsen wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Arnott shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 48.5% vs Arnott 50.3% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Arnott 79.1%
Defensive zone
Nielsen 64.0%
Neutral zone
Arnott 52.5%
Result
Jason Arnott favored at 59.6%
40.4%
59.6%
Nielsen
Arnott
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Nielsen
Arnott
Last 8: Nielsen 5-3 Arnott
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Arnott
1
3
Nielsen
Arnott
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
3
0
Nielsen
Arnott
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nielsen
1
0
Nielsen
Arnott
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
Arnott
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (7,608)
49.7% (1,444)
-0.4%
Power Play
54.7% (594)
53.8% (182)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (1,420)
40.0% (15)
+1.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Arnott shoots right. Nielsen is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,660).
Nielsen shoots left. Arnott is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,175).
Home / Away
Nielsen
Arnott
Home
49.9% (4,766)
52.1% (891)
Away
47.1% (4,890)
48.2% (772)
By Period
Nielsen
Arnott
P1
49.7%
46.1%
P2
47.6%
53.6%
P3
48.2%
50.1%
OT
46.6%
71.4%
Final 5 min
48.7%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
48.5%
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2011 | 3 | 07:19 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 3 | 05:30 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 2 | 12:08 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Dec 23, 2010 | 3 | 11:38 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Dec 23, 2010 | 2 | 09:31 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Nov 26, 2010 | 3 | 01:23 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 26, 2010 | 2 | 02:19 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 26, 2010 | 1 | 19:51 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |