Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 34 meetings). Nielsen wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 48.5% vs Spezza 54.7% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 56-40 in 96 meetings
Offensive zone
Nielsen 78.8%
Defensive zone
Nielsen 84.3%
Neutral zone
Nielsen 76.8%
Result
Frans Nielsen favored at 79.7%
79.7%
20.3%
Nielsen
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
40
-
56
(96 meetings)
40
56
Nielsen
Spezza
Last 10: Nielsen 5-5 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
4
30
Nielsen
Spezza
34 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
18
10
Nielsen
Spezza
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nielsen
18
16
Nielsen
Spezza
34 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (7,608)
54.4% (7,990)
-5.1%
Power Play
54.7% (594)
56.8% (1,726)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (1,420)
52.7% (643)
-11.0%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Nielsen is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,660).
Nielsen shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Home / Away
Nielsen
Spezza
Home
49.9% (4,766)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
47.1% (4,890)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Nielsen
Spezza
P1
49.7%
55.7%
P2
47.6%
54.4%
P3
48.2%
54.1%
OT
46.6%
51.5%
Final 5 min
48.7%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
48.5%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 06:47 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 04:04 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 03:57 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 2 | 13:49 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 2 | 05:11 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 3 | 18:40 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2 | 18:20 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2 | 08:46 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 1 | 16:09 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 3 | 09:22 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 3 | 01:56 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 2 | 10:16 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 1 | 00:44 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 10, 2017 | 3 | 13:55 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 10, 2017 | 3 | 08:44 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 10, 2017 | 2 | 11:52 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 10, 2017 | 2 | 05:55 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 10, 2017 | 2 | 04:31 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 10, 2017 | 2 | 01:49 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |