Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nielsen wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 46.7% vs Spezza 55.1% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nielsen 78.2%
Defensive zone
Nielsen 84.3%
Neutral zone
Nielsen 76.5%
Result
Frans Nielsen favored at 78.0%
78.0%
22.0%
Nielsen
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Nielsen
Spezza
Last 10: Nielsen 2-8 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
4
Nielsen
Spezza
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Nielsen
Spezza
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
3
Nielsen
Spezza
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (836)
56.4% (654)
-8.8%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
51.7% (87)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
38.0% (158)
50.0% (6)
-12.0%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Nielsen is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (445).
Nielsen shoots left. Spezza is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Nielsen
Spezza
Home
50.4% (508)
61.4% (352)
Away
42.6% (533)
50.9% (395)
By Period
Nielsen
Spezza
P1
48.1%
60.6%
P2
44.6%
54.8%
P3
46.8%
52.5%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
48.2%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
46.4%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2018 | 3 | 09:22 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 3 | 01:56 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 2 | 10:16 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 16, 2018 | 1 | 00:44 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 10, 2017 | 3 | 13:55 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 10, 2017 | 3 | 08:44 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 10, 2017 | 2 | 11:52 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 10, 2017 | 2 | 05:55 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 10, 2017 | 2 | 04:31 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 10, 2017 | 2 | 01:49 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |