Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Nielsen wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 48.5% vs Dowd 50.7% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nielsen 80.0%
Defensive zone
Nielsen 63.4%
Neutral zone
Nielsen 58.8%
Result
Frans Nielsen favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Nielsen
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Nielsen
Dowd
Last 9: Nielsen 2-7 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Nielsen
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Nielsen
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
4
Nielsen
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (7,608)
52.4% (6,009)
-3.1%
Power Play
54.7% (594)
56.1% (164)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (1,420)
44.1% (1,635)
-2.4%
On even strength, Dowd has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Nielsen is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,660).
Nielsen shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Nielsen
Dowd
Home
49.9% (4,766)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
47.1% (4,890)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Nielsen
Dowd
P1
49.7%
51.7%
P2
47.6%
50.4%
P3
48.2%
50.3%
OT
46.6%
45.9%
Final 5 min
48.7%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
48.5%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2019 | 2 | 19:31 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 2 | 09:05 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 1 | 18:40 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 1 | 10:50 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 1 | 03:44 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 1 | 03:39 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 12:13 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 5, 2017 | 2 | 10:25 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |