Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Gaudreau wins 44.4% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 44.1% vs Evans 53.9% (-11.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 53.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 50.2%
Neutral zone
Evans 52.7%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Gaudreau
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Gaudreau
Evans
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
1
0
Gaudreau
Evans
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
1
2
Gaudreau
Evans
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
46.0% (315)
53.6% (349)
-7.6%
Power Play
33.3% (12)
70.0% (10)
-36.7%
Penalty Kill
31.8% (85)
55.9% (161)
-24.1%
On power play, Evans has a +36.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Gaudreau is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (90).
Gaudreau shoots right. Evans is 58.2% vs right-shot opponents (134).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
Evans
Home
42.9% (217)
54.1% (290)
Away
42.6% (195)
55.2% (230)
By Period
Gaudreau
Evans
P1
44.2%
60.1%
P2
44.4%
53.5%
P3
39.4%
50.3%
Final 5 min
49.2%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
42.0%▼
47.5%
42.7%
Evans
54.0%▼
57.0%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 18:56 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 17:25 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 17:19 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 05:31 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |