Scouting Report
Lucas Wallmark holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Smith wins 44.5% vs left-shot opponents — Wallmark shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 47.7% vs Wallmark 50.2% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wallmark 50.9%
Defensive zone
Wallmark 66.6%
Neutral zone
Wallmark 60.4%
Result
Lucas Wallmark favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
Smith
Wallmark
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Smith
Wallmark
Last 5: Smith 3-2 Wallmark
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wallmark
0
2
Smith
Wallmark
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
3
0
Smith
Wallmark
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Wallmark
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (212)
50.5% (1,852)
-1.9%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
56.3% (103)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
9.1% (11)
44.9% (216)
-35.8%
On penalty kill, Wallmark has a +35.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wallmark shoots left. Smith is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (155).
Smith shoots left. Wallmark is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,391).
Home / Away
Smith
Wallmark
Home
43.0% (114)
50.8% (1,070)
Away
50.4% (113)
49.6% (1,101)
By Period
Smith
Wallmark
P1
45.6%
51.4%
P2
49.4%
50.8%
P3
45.0%
48.7%
Final 5 min
40.4%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
46.0%▬
47.0%
46.7%
Wallmark
44.0%▬
44.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2019 | 3 | 12:17 | Offensive | Lucas Wallmark |
| Oct 6, 2019 | 3 | 08:42 | Neutral | Gemel Smith |
| Oct 6, 2019 | 1 | 10:01 | Offensive | Lucas Wallmark |
| Oct 6, 2019 | 1 | 09:53 | Neutral | Gemel Smith |
| Oct 6, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Gemel Smith |