Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McKegg 49.2% vs Carrick 51.9% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McKegg 77.2%
Defensive zone
McKegg 54.8%
Neutral zone
McKegg 67.5%
Result
Greg McKegg favored at 69.3%
69.3%
30.7%
McKegg
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
McKegg
Carrick
Last 9: McKegg 3-6 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McKegg
2
1
McKegg
Carrick
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
McKegg
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
4
McKegg
Carrick
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McKegg
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (1,143)
51.9% (2,420)
-2.8%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
61.3% (75)
-11.3%
Penalty Kill
48.8% (86)
50.7% (408)
-1.9%
On power play, Carrick has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. McKegg is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (471).
McKegg shoots left. Carrick is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,090).
Home / Away
McKegg
Carrick
Home
50.4% (554)
51.0% (1,377)
Away
48.1% (699)
52.9% (1,526)
By Period
McKegg
Carrick
P1
48.7%
51.5%
P2
49.9%
52.0%
P3
48.6%
52.4%
Final 5 min
49.0%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McKegg
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.1%
Carrick
56.0%▬
55.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 10:35 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 08:52 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 1 | 13:16 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 1 | 07:51 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 1 | 04:29 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 1 | 01:53 | Offensive | Greg McKegg |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 3 | 17:50 | Offensive | Greg McKegg |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 3 | 02:10 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 22, 2019 | 1 | 07:38 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |