Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Finley wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Finley 48.8% vs Staal 54.6% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 59.1%
Defensive zone
Finley 52.1%
Neutral zone
Staal 55.7%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 55.0%
45.0%
55.0%
Finley
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Finley
Staal
Last 8: Finley 4-4 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
2
Finley
Staal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Finley
2
0
Finley
Staal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
1
2
Finley
Staal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Finley
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (239)
56.1% (955)
-8.8%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
66.9% (142)
-16.9%
Penalty Kill
57.7% (26)
43.0% (242)
+14.7%
On power play, Staal has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Finley is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (198).
Finley shoots right. Staal is 65.3% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Home / Away
Finley
Staal
Home
50.0% (162)
55.4% (663)
Away
46.2% (117)
54.4% (676)
By Period
Finley
Staal
P1
53.2%
55.1%
P2
44.6%
54.7%
P3
49.0%
53.9%
OT
0.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Finley
54.0%▲
50.5%
48.4%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 19:01 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 18:54 | Defensive | Jack Finley |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 17:21 | Defensive | Jack Finley |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 17:15 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:56 | Offensive | Jack Finley |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 16:42 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Finley |