Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.3% vs 50.8%). Look for Ostapchuk on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Finley 50.2% vs Ostapchuk 50.6% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Finley leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Finley 51.0%
Defensive zone
Finley 58.6%
Neutral zone
Finley 50.1%
Result
Jack Finley favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Finley
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Finley
Ostapchuk
Last 10: Finley 6-4 Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
1
2
Finley
Ostapchuk
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Finley
2
0
Finley
Ostapchuk
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Finley
3
2
Finley
Ostapchuk
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Finley
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
50.2% (279)
52.5% (320)
-2.3%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
33.3% (3)
+16.7%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (33)
42.4% (59)
+9.1%
On power play, Finley has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Finley is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Finley shoots right. Ostapchuk is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
Finley
Ostapchuk
Home
53.8% (199)
49.1% (171)
Away
44.9% (127)
52.1% (211)
By Period
Finley
Ostapchuk
P1
52.8%
50.4%
P2
47.5%
46.8%
P3
51.3%
55.1%
Final 5 min
48.8%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Finley
62.0%▲
51.5%
50.3%
Ostapchuk
52.0%▲
50.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 02:05 | Offensive | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 00:13 | Neutral | Jack Finley |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 09:38 | Offensive | Jack Finley |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 09:23 | Defensive | Jack Finley |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 02:12 | Defensive | Jack Finley |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Finley |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 17:41 | Neutral | Jack Finley |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 12:47 | Offensive | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 17:04 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |