Scouting Report
Riley Nash holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Hughes wins 38.1% vs right-shot opponents — Nash shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.5% vs Nash 48.5% (-12.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 71.4%
Defensive zone
Nash 64.3%
Neutral zone
Nash 62.4%
Result
Riley Nash favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Hughes
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Hughes
Nash
Last 8: Hughes 4-4 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nash
0
1
Hughes
Nash
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nash
1
2
Hughes
Nash
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
3
1
Hughes
Nash
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
35.9% (2,772)
48.7% (4,621)
-12.8%
Power Play
39.0% (223)
51.0% (249)
-12.0%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
44.9% (550)
-13.9%
On penalty kill, Nash has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. Hughes is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,179).
Hughes shoots left. Nash is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,747).
Home / Away
Hughes
Nash
Home
36.7% (1,596)
50.2% (2,740)
Away
35.3% (1,441)
46.7% (2,681)
By Period
Hughes
Nash
P1
36.3%
49.0%
P2
33.7%
47.9%
P3
38.3%
48.0%
OT
37.5%
68.4%
Final 5 min
34.4%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
34.0%▼
36.5%
36.0%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 19, 2022 | 2 | 18:43 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Jan 19, 2022 | 2 | 11:32 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 19, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Jan 19, 2022 | 1 | 18:58 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 19, 2022 | 1 | 13:35 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Jan 19, 2022 | 1 | 06:45 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Feb 16, 2020 | 2 | 10:10 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |