Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +15.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Rose wins 34.0% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rose 44.0% vs Spezza 57.3% (-15.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rose 61.8%
Defensive zone
Rose 71.3%
Neutral zone
Rose 75.1%
Result
Jacob de la Rose favored at 71.7%
71.7%
28.3%
Rose
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Rose
Spezza
Last 5: Rose 1-4 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Rose
Spezza
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Rose
Spezza
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
2
Rose
Spezza
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rose
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
41.6% (346)
58.0% (697)
-16.4%
Power Play
71.4% (7)
60.0% (105)
+11.4%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (27)
60.0% (5)
-15.6%
On even strength, Spezza has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Rose is 34.0% vs right-shot opponents (103).
Rose shoots left. Spezza is 58.2% vs left-shot opponents (591).
Home / Away
Rose
Spezza
Home
47.0% (217)
58.2% (376)
Away
36.2% (163)
58.2% (431)
By Period
Rose
Spezza
P1
43.3%
63.3%
P2
43.3%
54.9%
P3
40.0%
57.4%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
44.6%
57.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rose
48.0%▲
44.5%
42.4%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
58.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2018 | 3 | 02:20 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 1 | 17:24 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 29, 2018 | 1 | 10:38 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 1 | 11:44 | Neutral | Jacob de la Rose |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 1 | 04:16 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |